Climate Change on Our Society Articles Peer Reviewed
On Mon, nosotros revealed the results of our survey of scientists in which we asked them to name the "most influential" climatic change papers of all fourth dimension.
The well-nigh popular nomination was a seminal paper by Syukuro Manabe and Richard T Wetherald published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences in 1967.
Now, we plow from the subjective to the objective and look at which are the about "cited" climate change papers. Here, Carbon Brief analyses which papers have had the biggest impact in the academic world, and who wrote them.
Thousands of peer-reviewed academic papers are published most climate change every year. These articles form the bedrock of climate science, underpinning the assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic change (IPCC).
With then many papers from so many journals, some inevitably sink without trace. Simply others become the centrepiece of their field or spark new areas of enquiry.
Published papers
At that place are diverse databases to search through which listing the thousands of bookish papers published each year. Among options such equally Google Scholar and Web of Science, we plumped for Scopus, the world's largest abstract and citation database of peer-reviewed literature.
In Scopus, we searched for whatever academic newspaper with the phrase 'climate change' or 'global warming' in its title, abstract or keywords. We too tried using merely 'climate' for the searches, but that produced a very wide range of manufactures. Equally we wanted to wait at both the summit papers and all papers far beyond the pinnacle 100, nosotros wouldn't have manually been able to filter out all the non-climate papers for the assay. And then we went with 'climate modify' and 'global warming', though this does hateful that some climatic change papers without those terms in the title, abstract or keywords would miss out.
Just in response to queries from some climate scientists, we've too, for comparison, included the peak ten 'climate' papers at the finish of the commodity.
We then limited the search to give united states of america simply pure enquiry articles, filtering out other publications such as book capacity, briefing papers, review articles and editorials.
The search yields a full of almost 120,000 papers, equally of the beginning of June this twelvemonth. You tin see below how the number of published papers virtually climatic change took off during the 2000s.
Total number of climate change papers published, by year. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief
As the nautical chart below shows, most of the papers relate to environmental science (25% of papers), earth and planetary science (22%) and agricultural and biological sciences (sixteen%). Merely the search also unearths papers from social science (8%), medicine (three%) and even dentistry (0%, or 4 papers).
Subject of climatic change papers, by topic surface area. Information from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief
Most prolific
Beyond all 120,000 papers, the near prolific author is Dr Philippe Ciais from the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat and de l'Environment in Paris. Ciais has 120 published articles on climate change, mostly nearly the global carbon cycle.
Coming in second is Prof Richard Tol, from the Department of Economics at the University of Sussex, with 113. And third identify goes to Prof Josep Penuelas, director of the Global Ecology Unit at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. You tin can run across the rest of the tiptop 10 in the graphic below.
Summit 10 nigh prolific authors of climate modify papers. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Cursory
But while the number of publications shows how prolific a researcher is, it doesn't reveal how influential their work is. To do that we need to look at citations.
Commendation, citation, citation
In an academic paper, scientists will refer to previous work by other scientists in their field. This may be to ready the scene of their inquiry or acknowledge a method or finding that someone else produced. In doing this they refer to, or 'cite', other academic papers.
Databases such as Scopus keep track of how many times each newspaper has been cited by others. We extracted the 100 most cited climate change papers.
The top paper, with 3,305 citations, is Nature paper, " A globally coherent fingerprint of climatic change impacts beyond natural systems", past Prof Camille Parmesan, at the University of Texas and Plymouth University, and Prof Gary Yohe, from Wesleyan Academy.
Published in 2003, the paper assessed the global impact of climate change on more than ane,700 biological species, from birds and butterflies to trees and alpine herbs. Parmesan and Yohe plant that 279 species are already beingness affected past climatic change, and 74-91% of these changes concur with what is expected from projections.
This newspaper likewise featured in our analysis every bit one of the papers that IPCC authors considered the most influential.
In runners-up spot is an Ecological Modelling paper from 2000, " Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology", with ii,746 citations. The paper was written past Prof Antoine Guisan, at present of the Université de Lausanne, and Dr Niklaus Zimmerman of the Swiss Federal Research Institute.
And coming in third is " Extinction risk from climate change", once more published in Nature, with ii,562 citations. This 2004 paper has 19 authors, just the lead was Dr Chris Thomas from the Academy of Leeds.
Our infographic beneath shows the top 10 most cited papers on climate change.
Tiptop 10 virtually cited climate change papers. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief
Crossover
Apart from the Parmesan and Yohe article, just i of our top most influential papers according to IPCC authors makes the top 100 of almost cited. This is the Journal of Climate paper " Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming", by Prof Isaac Held and Prof Brian Soden, which comes in 34th.
So where are the climatic luminaries of Syukuro Manabe, Guy Callendar and Charles Keeling? Well, primarily, Scopus doesn't yet have consummate citations for papers published before 1996, so older papers might be underrepresented in the superlative 100 most cited.
But another reason could be that papers tend to have more citations in contempo years because in that location are more papers on climate modify being published, and then more than opportunities to exist cited. This is reflected in the top 100, where about are from 2000 onwards, and none earlier 1988.
Likewise, very recent papers don't appear in the top 100 because they oasis't been around long plenty to accumulate citations. The nigh recent paper in the top 100 was published in 2011.
Most appearances
So we've looked at which authors produce the nigh papers, merely which have appeared most ofttimes in the acme 100 of cited papers? No researcher appeared more than twice every bit a lead author, but four appeared every bit at to the lowest degree a co-writer in five papers.
Featuring in this group is, in one case again, Prof Ciais. But alongside him with v papers are Dr Josep Canadell, the executive director of the Global Carbon Project at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Arrangement (CSIRO) in Australia, Dr Richard Houghton, a senior scientist at Woods Pigsty Inquiry Center in Massachusetts, and Prof Colin Prentice, professor of life sciences at Imperial College London.
Across the leading four, another two researchers are authors on 4 papers, and a further 10 accept authored three. This makes up a summit 16 of authors behind the 100 almost cited papers, which you lot can see in the graphic below.
Top xvi authors with the about papers in the acme 100 most cited. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief
Western focus
We also looked at which institutions were behind the acme 100 papers. This time we just concentrated on the chief institution that each paper's lead writer was affiliated to.
Two come out top, with six papers each: the University of East Anglia, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the US. In total, at that place are 17 institutions with at least two papers in the acme 100.
Looking at the countries where these institutions reside, there is a prominent leaning towards western countries in the northern hemisphere. The United states and the UK boss, with almost three-quarters of the top 100 papers.
Papers in the height 100, past establishment. Information from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Cursory
The rest are sprinkled through Europe, with a few further afield, including Australia, China and Republic of costa rica.
For comparison, we've as well mapped which countries all 120,000 papers were authored from. Although note this isn't a straight comparing, because this data include the locations of all the authors on each paper, not only the pb.
Map of countries with most papers, for the top 100 almost cited (height), and for all climate change papers (lesser). Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Cursory and © OpenStreetMap contributors © CartoDB.
You tin meet over again that researchers in the US and Great britain are responsible for the majority of climate change papers, but, interestingly, Prc comes in third with vii%. Looking into the information, over a fifth of these papers have an author from the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
In fact, according to Scopus, over ii,200 of all 120,000 papers have at least one writer from the Chinese University, though just one makes into our meridian 100 most cited.
Top journals
Finally, we looked at where our top 100 about-cited papers were published. And at that place were no surprises hither. Height of the tree are journal powerhouses Nature (27 papers) and Scientific discipline (26), accounting for over one-half of the summit 100, and Nature has six of the top ten. This doesn't include sister journals, such as Nature Climate change or Science Advances.
Trailing backside at some distance are Journal of Climate (nine), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (4) and Review of Geophysics (3). No other journal makes more than ii appearances in the meridian 100.
Superlative 100 climate papers, by journal. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Cursory
But do Nature and Scientific discipline only come out top because they publish the most manufactures on climatic change? According to Scopus, information technology seems not.
Of all 120,000 papers, nigh were published by Geophysical Research Letters (3,057 papers), followed past Journal of Climate (2,600) and Climatic Change (two,200). Nature comes in 12th (839) and Science way downwards in 20th (625).
Hither'southward the entire Acme 100 list if yous want to have a expect yourself.
Top 'climate' papers
As we mentioned before, searching for papers on "climatic change" or "global warming" may mean overlooking some climate-related papers that don't necessarily have these terms in their title, abstract or keywords. So, for comparison, beneath is the top 10 most cited "climate" papers.
Top 10 nearly cited climate papers. Differences in commendation numbers betwixt superlative ten climate papers and top x climatic change papers (see earlier graphic) are because the database was searched on dissimilar days. Data from Scopus. Credit: Rosamund Pearce, Carbon Brief
The nigh cited "climate" paper is " The NCEP/NCAR twoscore-year reanalysis projection", with a total of xiii,905 citations. The newspaper has 22 authors, merely the pb was Prof Eugenia Kalnay, and so at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction at NOAA in the US, but now of the University of Maryland.
Published in the journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in 1996, the paper describes the development of a 40-twelvemonth global climate record, which has been used – and hence cited – in thousands of other climate studies.
Graphic preview: The height ten most cited climate papers.
Updated on 10 July 2015: We amended the top15 nigh cited authors infographic to add together in a scientist we missed out.
Source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-the-most-cited-climate-change-papers
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